The National Association for PET Container Resources (NAPCOR) today released PET Forward: A Decarbonization Roadmap for the PET Packaging Value Chain, a new analysis developed by independent environmental consulting firm Eastern Research Group, Inc. (ERG). The roadmap identifies practical strategies that could significantly reduce emissions associated with predominant US PET beverage bottle systems through 2050. PET (polyethylene terephthalate), widely identified by the #1 inside the triangle, is the most recycled plastic in the world.

The roadmap finds that, by 2050, the US PET industry can reduce the life cycle greenhouse gas emissions intensity of the PET beverage bottle systems studied by approximately 57%. In practical terms, this means significantly reducing the greenhouse gas emissions associated with each bottle across its full life cycle, from the materials used to make it through its eventual disposal or recycling. Even as production grows, total annual emissions associated with the systems studied could decline by about 42%, the equivalent to taking 323,000 gas-powered passenger vehicles off the road.

NAPCOR’s new research builds on its comparative life cycle assessment, which found that a typical PET soda bottle has less than half the total greenhouse gas footprint of an aluminum can and approximately one-fifth that of a glass bottle. The roadmap demonstrates how the industry can reduce emissions from PET beverage bottles even further.

Meaningful progress does not depend solely on future breakthroughs. Many of the strategies driving the modeled reductions are already available across the PET value chain, including lightweighting, renewable energy, and improvements in manufacturing efficiency. Over time, stronger collection systems, increased recycling and recycled content, and continued investment in infrastructure and innovation can drive further progress.

“PET is already starting from a position of strength,” said Laura Stewart, Executive Director of NAPCOR. “It has a lower greenhouse gas footprint than common beverage packaging alternatives, is the most recycled plastic in the world, and is supported by an established bottle-to-bottle recycling system operating at scale. This roadmap shows that we don’t have to choose between meeting growing consumer demand and continuing to improve environmental performance; we can do both.”

A Practical Pathway to Lower Emissions

The ISO-compliant roadmap builds on NAPCOR’s 2023 peer-reviewed, ISO-compliant life cycle assessment and examines four of the predominant PET beverage bottle systems sold in the United States: 16.9-ounce water bottles and 16.9-ounce, 20-ounce, and 2-liter carbonated soft drink bottles. The PET Forward Roadmap evaluates emissions across the bottle life cycle, from raw material production and manufacturing through transportation and end-of-life management, and models how that footprint could change through 2050. An independent third-party expert peer-reviewed the final report.

The analysis shows that substantial progress can happen well before 2050. Under the modeled pathway, the emissions intensity of a 16.9-ounce PET water bottle system, measured per 1,000 gallons of beverage delivered, could decline approximately 44% by 2035 compared with the 2023 baseline. The three carbonated soft drink bottle systems studied could achieve emissions intensity reductions of approximately 35% to 43% over the same period.

The roadmap also distinguishes between actions the PET industry can advance directly, and the broader conditions needed to unlock additional progress. Manufacturers can continue improving bottle design, energy efficiency, and production processes, while deeper long-term gains depend on factors across the wider system, including reliable supplies of high-quality recycled PET, stronger collection and sorting infrastructure, recycling capacity, and supportive policy.

“The analysis is designed as a roadmap. It models the cumulative impact of multiple strategies over time and includes sensitivity analyses to account for variables such as future production growth and different approaches to measuring the benefits of recycling. The result is a framework for identifying where the PET industry can act today and where collaboration across the value chain will be necessary to achieve further progress,” said Dr. Mariya Absar, Senior LCA Expert at ERG.

Decarbonization and American Manufacturing

The roadmap also demonstrates that reducing emissions and supporting economic growth do not have to be competing objectives.

“Recycling strengthens American manufacturing,” added Stewart. “When we collect more PET and recycle it here in the United States, we create a stronger domestic supply of valuable material for manufacturers. Policies that improve collection and encourage investment in recycling infrastructure can help accelerate environmental progress while also strengthening American manufacturing and supply chain resilience.”

Many of the investments needed to advance PET decarbonization are also investments in US manufacturing and recycling capacity. More efficient production, expanded collection and processing, greater availability of recycled PET, and continued packaging innovation can strengthen domestic supply chains while reducing environmental impacts.

“Decarbonization depends on connecting manufacturing with the recycling system,” stated Tom Busard, NAPCOR Board Chair, Chief Polymers and Recycling Officer for Plastipak Packaging, Inc., and President of Clean Tech, Plastipak’s recycling affiliate. “Efficiency gains matter, but deeper reductions require reliable access to high-quality recycled PET. That makes stronger collection and domestic recycling capacity essential to delivering lower-carbon packaging at scale.”

The full PET Forward: A Decarbonization Roadmap for the PET Packaging Value Chain, executive summary, and additional resources are available at: https://napcor.com/sustainability/

About NAPCOR

Founded in 1987, the National Association for PET Container Resources (NAPCOR) is the industry association for the polyethylene terephthalate (PET) plastic packaging industry in the United States, Canada, and Mexico. NAPCOR is dedicated to promoting PET packaging, overcoming hurdles to successful PET recycling, and communicating the attributes of the PET container as a sustainable packaging option. Learn more at https://napcor.com/.

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